January 25, 2010
Ben Bernanke’s four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31. There is presently no vote scheduled to confirm President Obama’s nomination of Bernanke to that post because four Senators (Bernie Sanders, D-Vt.; Jim Bunning, R-Ky.; Jim DeMint, R-S.C. and David Vitter, R-La.) have placed holds on Bernanke’s nomination. In order for the Senate to proceed to a vote on the nomination, 60 votes will be required. At this point, there is a serious question as to whether the pro-Bernanke faction can produce those 60 votes. A number of commentators have described last week’s win by Scott Brown as a “chill factor” for those Senators considering whether to vote for confirmation. Ryan Grim of The Huffington Post put it this way:
Opposition to the reconfirmation of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is growing in the Senate in the wake of a Republican Scott Brown’s victory, fueled by populist rage, in the Massachusetts Senate race.
James Pethokoukis of Reuters explained the situation in these terms:
Liberals in Congress want him gone. Then again, they want pretty much the whole Obama economic team gone. But Geithner and Summers aren’t up for a Senate vote. Bernanke is. And if Dems start bailing, don’t expect Republicans to save him. No politician in America gains anything by voting for Bernanke. A “no” vote is a free vote. Wall Street still loves him, though. Geithner, too.
At The Hill, Tony Romm reported:
Bernanke has taken heat as Wall Street’s profits have soared while unemployment has become stuck in double digits, and the wave of economic populism soaring through Washington in the wake of a stunning Democratic loss in the Massachusetts Senate races comes at a bad time for his confirmation.
If Bernanke is not confirmed, he will continue to sit on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors because each Fed Governor is appointed to a 14-year term. Donald Kohn, the vice chairman, would serve as the interim chairman until Bernanke’s successor is nominated and confirmed.
The forces pushing for Bernanke’s confirmation have now resorted to scare tactics, warning that dire consequences will result from a failure to re-confirm Bernanke. Senator “Countrywide Chris” Dodd warned that if Bernanke is not confirmed, the economy will go into a “tailspin”. An Associated Press report, written by Jennine Aversa and carried by The Washington Post, warned that a failure to confirm Bernanke could raise the risk of a double-dip recession. At The Atlantic, Megan McArdle exploited widespread concern over already-depleted retirement savings:
Spiking his nomination may have grim effects on 401(k)s throughout the land.
Not to be outdone, Judge Richard Posner issued this warning from his perch at The Atlantic:
If he is not confirmed, the independence of the Fed will take a terrible hit, because the next nominee will have to make outright promises to Congress of bank bashing, and of keeping interest rates way down regardless of inflation risk, in order to be confirmed.
I guess that these people forgot to mention that if Bernanke is not confirmed:
A plague of locusts shall be visited upon us,
The earth will be struck by a Texas-sized asteroid,
An incurable venereal disease will be spread via toilet seats,
The Internet will vanish, and . . .
Osama bin Laden will become the next Justice of the United States Supreme Court.
At the Think Progress website, Matthew Yglesias pondered the issue:
What happens if Ben Bernanke isn’t reconfirmed? Well, some folks seem to think it will send markets into a tailspin. But it’s worth emphasizing that in literal terms almost nothing will happen.
Beyond that, as Sudeep Reddy and Damian Paletta explained in The Wall Street Journal:
The Federal Open Market Committee — which consists of the presidentially appointed Fed governors in Washington and the presidents of the regional Fed banks — meets Jan. 26-27 and traditionally elects a chairman and vice chairman at its first meeting of the year. The committee, which makes monetary policy decisions, is set to elect Mr. Bernanke as its chairman at that meeting, a move that doesn’t require approval of the White House or the Senate.
Min Zeng of The Wall Street Journal filled us in as to what else we can expect from the FOMC this week:
Next week, the two-day FOMC meeting will end Wednesday afternoon with a statement on an interest-rate decision and policymakers’ latest outlook on the economy and inflation.
The FOMC is widely expected by market participants to keep its main policy rate — the fed-funds target rate — at ultra-low levels near zero as recent data haven’t demonstrated a persistent and strong economic recovery, with a jobless rate still hovering around the highest level in more than two decades.
Fed policymakers are also likely to stick to their plan to end the $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed securities purchases program at the end of March. The central bank should also reiterate its plan to let some emergency lending programs expire Feb. 1.
The Fed could soon hike the rate it charges on emergency loans, known as the discount rate, but that would largely be symbolic now that banks have been borrowing less and less from it as financial markets stabilized.
Meanwhile, the battle against the Bernanke confirmation continues. Mike Shedlock (a/k/a Mish) has urged his readers to contact the “undecided” Senators and voice opposition to Bernanke. Mish has also provided the names and contact information for those Senators, as well as the names of those Senators who are currently on record as either supporting or opposing Bernanke.
I’d like to see Bernanke lose, regardless of the consequences. The rationale for this opinion was superbly articulated by Senator Jim Bunning during the confirmation hearing on December 3. If you’re not familiar with it — give it a read. Here is Senator Bunning’s conclusion to those remarks, delivered directly to Bernanke:
From monetary policy to regulation, consumer protection, transparency, and independence, your time as Fed Chairman has been a failure. You stated time and again during the housing bubble that there was no bubble. After the bubble burst, you repeatedly claimed the fallout would be small. And you clearly did not spot the systemic risks that you claim the Fed was supposed to be looking out for. Where I come from we punish failure, not reward it. That is certainly the way it was when I played baseball, and the way it is all across America. Judging by the current Treasury Secretary, some may think Washington does reward failure, but that should not be the case. I will do everything I can to stop your nomination and drag out the process as long as possible. We must put an end to your and the Fed’s failures, and there is no better time than now.
Amen.
The Dishonesty Behind The Bernanke Vote
January 28. 2010
While reading a recent Huffington Post piece by Jason Linkins, wherein he criticized President Obama’s proposed spending freeze, I was struck by Linkins’ emphasis on the notion that this proposal signaled a return to “institutionalized infantilism”:
Linkins referred to a recent essay about the freeze, written by Ryan Avent of The Economist, which underscored the greater, underlying problem motivating politicians such as Obama to believe they can “slip one by” the gullible public:
Matt Taibbi made a similar observation about our President, while pondering whether the announced reliance on the wisdom of Paul Volcker meant an end to Tim Geithner’s days as Treasury Secretary:
We are now witnessing another example of this “infantilisation of the electorate” as it takes place with the dishonest maneuvering to get Ben Bernanke’s nomination to a second term past a filibuster. Here’s how this scam was exposed by Josh Rosner at The Big Picture website:
Get it? These Senators believe they can go back to their constituents with a straight face and tell the chumps that they voted against Bernanke’s confirmation when, in fact, they facilitated his confirmation by voting for cloture to give Bernanke a boost over the potentially insurmountable, 60-vote hurdle. This sleight-of-hand comes along at the precise moment when we are learning about Bernanke’s true role in the AIG bailout. As Ryan Grim reported for The Huffington Post:
Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism disclosed that Congressman Darrell Issa, who has been investigating the AIG bailout in his role as ranking Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, “believes there is evidence that says Bernanke overruled his staff and authorized the rescue”. Ms. Smith explained how Issa is pushing ahead to investigate:
Congressman Issa’s letter can be viewed in its entirety here.
You may recall that the fight against the Fed for release of the AIG bailout documents became the subject of an opinion piece in the December 19 edition of The New York Times, written by Eliot Spitzer, Frank Partnoy and William Black.
There are plenty of reasons to oppose confirmation of Ben Bernanke to a second term as Fed chair. Senator Jim Bunning did a fantastic job articulating many of those points during the confirmation hearing on December 3. Beyond that, economist Randall Wray gave us “3 Reasons to Fear Bernanke’s Reappointment” at the Roosevelt Institute’s New Deal 2.0 website. Dr. Wray concluded his essay with this statement:
The really pressing issue at this point is whether the withheld AIG bailout documents, which are the subject of Congressman Issa’s latest inquiry, might actually reveal some malefaction on the part of Bernanke himself. A revelation of that magnitude would certainly kill the confirmation effort. If Bernanke is confirmed prior to the release of documents indicating malfeasance on his part, I’ll be wishing I had a dollar for every time a Senator would say: “I just voted for cloture –but I voted against confirmation.”