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About TheCenterLane.com
TheCenterLane.com offers opinion, news and commentary on politics, the economy, finance and other random events that either find their way into the news or are ignored by the news reporting business. As the name suggests, our focus will be on what seems to be happening in The Center Lane of American politics and what the view from the Center reveals about the events in the left and right lanes. Your Host, John T. Burke, Jr., earned his Bachelor of Arts degree from Boston College with a double major in Speech Communications and Philosophy. He earned his law degree (Juris Doctor) from the Illinois Institute of Technology / Chicago-Kent College of Law.
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Reality Check
July 13, 2009
Have you become sick of hearing about the “green shoots”? Back on March 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared on 60 Minutes and made the self-serving, self-congratulatory claim that “green shoots” could be found in the economy. I guess we’re supposed to thank him for all the extra money printing he had mandated, to facilitate this claimed result. While we normal people continued to cope with ongoing job losses, an almost nonexistent job market, unavailable mortgages, a constipated real estate market and fear about the future . . . Chairman Bernanke was trying to sell us on some good news. Since that time, the expression “green shoots” has been the mantra for those pundits who, for whatever reason, want the naive public to believe in the emperor’s new clothes. The usual motive for chatting up the “green shoots” is to encourage a widespread popular return to investing in the stock market and by so doing, make life more rewarding for those at brokerage firms.
This week brings us a “reality check” that will come in the form of earnings reports from the second quarter of 2009, required for disclosure by publicly-held corporations, traded on our nation’s stock exchanges. Recent news reports have focused on the fact that despite the “bear market rally” that began in May, last week’s drop in stock prices revealed widespread investor concern that the truth will not support all the hype they have been reading since the spring. Here’s what E.S. Browning had to say in the July 8 edition of The Wall Street Journal:
Those unfortunate investors were hit by two “sucker punches”. The first was the often-repeated claim that “stocks are now a bargain . . . we’ve hit the bottom so now is the time to BUY!” The second sucker punch involved the use of high-speed trading programs (such as the one recently stolen from Goldman Sachs) to run up the prices on stocks and exploit “retail investors” such as you and me. An astute explanation of this process was recently published by Sal Arnuk and Joseph Saluzzi of Themis Trading. You can read that report here. What’s even more interesting about the computer program used by (and stolen from) Goldman Sachs, is the statement made by Assistant U.S.Attorney Joseph Facciponti, as quoted in the July 6 article by David Glovin and Christine Harper for Bloomberg News:
So Goldman Sachs has a computer program that allows the user to “manipulate the markets in unfair ways”? That’s quite a revelation! If that weren’t bad enough . . . according to a recent report by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge, Goldman Sachs is not the only kid on the block with a high-frequency trading program.
Alexendra Twin of CNN (in addition to providing us with a schedule of earnings reports and other important economic data to be released over this week and next) pointed out another important reason for last spring’s stock market rally, which is not likely to be a factor this month:
My take on this process is a bit more cynical: the system is being “gamed” by companies’ providing artificially low estimates for future earnings, in order to win at what commentator Bill Fleckenstein calls “beat the number”.
Once we have read about all these reports — will we finally stop hearing about “green shoots”? I have my money on bad economic news, as I continue to maintain my position in the SRS exchange-traded fund. Nevertheless, I’m keeping one hand on the ripcord, ready to bail out at any minute.