- Al Jazeera
- AlterNet
- Angry Bear
- BBC World
- Brad DeLong
- Calculated Risk
- Corporate Crime Reporter
- Credit Writedowns
- Crossing Wall Street
- Danny Schecter
- Dean Baker
- Econbrowser
- Economic Outlook Group
- FactCheck.org
- Felix Salmon
- FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver)
- Interfluidity
- Maureen Dowd
- Media Matters for America
- Mish
- Naked Capitalism
- Nouriel Roubini
- OpenSecrets Blog
- PolitiFact
- Pragmatic Capitalism
- Project Syndicate
- Real Clear Politics
- Republic Report
- Roosevelt Institute
- Salon
- Seeking Alpha
- Talking Points Memo
- The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz)
- The Business Insider
- The Reformed Broker (Josh Brown)
- Truthdig
- VoteVets.org
- December 2023
- January 2023
- December 2021
- December 2020
- December 2019
- December 2018
- December 2017
- September 2017
- December 2016
- September 2016
- March 2016
- October 2015
- July 2015
- January 2015
- May 2014
- February 2014
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
Tip Jar
Stock Market
Blogroll
Archives
About TheCenterLane.com
TheCenterLane.com offers opinion, news and commentary on politics, the economy, finance and other random events that either find their way into the news or are ignored by the news reporting business. As the name suggests, our focus will be on what seems to be happening in The Center Lane of American politics and what the view from the Center reveals about the events in the left and right lanes. Your Host, John T. Burke, Jr., earned his Bachelor of Arts degree from Boston College with a double major in Speech Communications and Philosophy. He earned his law degree (Juris Doctor) from the Illinois Institute of Technology / Chicago-Kent College of Law.
© 2024 TheCenterLane.com
proSlate Theme by Pro WP Themes
Silver’s Streak
November 24, 2008
One of the most interesting characters to emerge from the 2008 election cycle is a young man named Nate Silver. Not to be upstaged by Sarah Palin, once he caught the interest of the mainstream media, Nate immediately picked up a new, snappy-looking pair of eyeglasses.
Nate is a 30-year-old math wizard who turned the world of political polling on its ear by introducing said ear to some new sounds that make nearly perfect mathematical and sonic sense. He graduated cum laude from the University of Chicago in 1980 with a major in Economics. He then took a job for a few years, working for a consulting firm. During that time, he developed a statistical system to forecast the performance of professional baseball players. In 2003, he went to work for a group producing an annual book on professional baseball player performance analysis and performance forecasts, called Baseball Prospectus. He then sold his statistical analysis system to that company and joined their staff.
In November of 2007, Nate began using his skills and systems to make forecasts of the Presidential primaries, using the pseudonym: “Poblano” on the Daily Kos website. On February 11, 2008, neocon William Kristol wrote an opinion piece for the New York Times, wherein he made note of “an interesting regression analysis at the Daily Kos Web site” done by Mr. Silver. The next month, Nate started his blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, where he utilized his new system for analyzing and forecasting Presidential primary results, as well as the ultimate outcome the 2008 Presidential election. As a consequence of this endeavor, the studios at CNN and MSNBC quickly became familiar surroundings to him. By November 14, 2008, The New York Observer had this to say about Nate:
Later that day, Leon Neyfakh reported on The Observer website that Nate had inked a book deal with Penguin Group, USA including a $700,000 advance. Although this advance is only ten percent of the amount allegedly offered as an advance to Sarah Palin for “her” “book”, you need to keep in mind that Nate is only 30 years old and Sarah will be a grandmother soon.
As the recount for Minnesota’s Senatorial election moves along, Nate’s November 23 posting on his FiveThirtyEight.com website has received quite a bit of attention. The title alone says it all: “Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes”. Will Mr. Silver’s “streak” continue? A reader, identified as “Max” posted the following comment on that blog: “If you are right about this you should put all others out of business.”
Nate provided us with another interesting take on the 2008 election, with a particular focus on the state of California. I was surprised at how Maureen Dowd’s article in the November 23 New York Times exhibited either an unfamiliarity with Nate’s California analysis or (less likely) a refusal to agree with it. To my disappointment, I detected Ms. Dowd’s apparent acceptance of the “conventional wisdom” concerning California’s controversial ballot initiative:
She should have known better. I would expect a pundit of her stature to be familiar with Nate’s November 11 posting on FiveThirtyEight.com: “Prop 8 Myths”. Here is some of what he had to say:
Get with it, Maureen! If Al Franken turns out to be Minnesota’s new junior Senator, you will no longer be justified in overlooking the observations of Nate Silver.