July 14, 2008
Jonathan Darman’s July 11 article for Newsweek discusses that magazine’s latest poll, showing Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by only 3 percentage points. Since this is probably within the poll’s margin of error (not discussed in the article) the two candidates are now in a statistical dead heat. This is in sharp contrast with last month’s Newsweek poll, showing Obama with a 15-percent lead over McCain (51 to 36). The July 13 Rasmussen poll showed each candidate with 46 percent. Darman and other commentators struggled with this shift in popular opinion. Darman noted:
But perhaps most puzzling is how McCain could have gained traction in the past month. To date, direct engagement with Obama has not seemed to favor the GOP nominee.
Perhaps the explanation for McCain’s popularity bump is evident in the preceding text of Mr. Darman’s article, discussing Obama’s controversial position favoring the new FISA law. Civil libertarians and the more liberal-leaning Democrats were outraged by Obama’s support for this bill. The Obama camp believed that this disappointment would be short-lived, since those factions had no other alternative than to support Barack. What these wizards failed to consider was the effect this betrayal would have on independent voters. Hillary Clinton paid a high political price for her support of the Joint Resolution for the Use of Military Force in Iraq. That Resolution was passed because there were too many Democrats in Congress who believed a vote against the Resolution would make them appear weak on national security. It was that same fear of appearing weak on national security that drove Obama and other Democrats to vote in favor of the new FISA law.
In the age of YouTube.com, authenticity has become a politician’s stock in trade. A politician’s denial of having made a statement (or of having played golf recently) can be easily rebutted with an audio-visual presentation of that politician’s own words or acts. The lack of authenticity is perceived as a measure of dishonesty. Concern for appearing weak is itself a sign of weakness. Obama’s support for the FISA bill tells me that he would indeed have voted in favor of the Iraq Resolution, had he been a member of United States Senate at the time. Hillary Clinton learned her lesson from the Iraq Resolution controversy and voted against the FISA bill. Nevertheless, had she been the presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee, would she have voted the same way?
The information obtained from the recent Newsweek poll suggests that authenticity may have played a role in the popular opinion shift. As Jonathan Darman pointed out:
In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
What may have come as a surprise to Obama’s advisors, was that the Democrat has lost popularity among independent voters. Although these voters may not have been as heartbroken as the members of MoveOn.org, over Obama’s support for the FISA legislation, they may have detected the strong odors of weakness and inauthenticity. As Mr. Darman observed:
In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June’s NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
In other words, Obama lost his 12-point lead among independent voters and he now trails McCain among independents by 7 points. McCain has apparently taken a page from the Bush playbook by deliberately making gaffes in order to appear less polished – and hence, more authentic to the voters. (One example of this was his repeated conflation of the activities of Iranian operatives and those of Al-Qaeda terrorists in Iraq.) McCain is appearing as “likeably” less articulate than his opponent, reinforcing the aura of authenticity. The only way for the Obama camp to stay in this fight is to keep McCain’s own “flip-flops” in the public eye. Taking “the high road” at this point appears to be political suicide. Although it doesn’t make for a good slogan: “Less of a flip-flopper than McCain” should become the theme for the Obama campaign.