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Iran Votes

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June 11, 2009

Friday, June 12, brings us the big election in Iran.  The infamous President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is up for re-election.  He is running against Mir Hussein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai.  At a time like this, it’s nice to check in on Al Jazeera to see how things are going.  (I always have a link to Al Jazeera on the Blogroll to the left, for keeping up with reactions to world events from their unique perspective.)  From Tehran, Alireza Ronaghi informs us that Ahmadinejad has quite a fight on his hands to maintain power.  Here’s some of what Mr. Ronaghi had to say about the candidates:

Ahmadinejad’s reformist rivals are Mehdi Karroubi, the former parliament speaker who led a reformist-dominated parliament between 2000 and 2004, and Mir Hossein Mousavi, who was Iran’s prime minister during the eight-year war with Iraq until a constitutional amendment abolished that post in Iran’s political system.

Both Karroubi and Mousavi accuse Ahmadinejad of mismanagement, both in foreign policy and the domestic economy.

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Mohsen Rezai is an ex-commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards —  Iran’s elite armed forces.

Rezai has previously claimed — despite a presumed proximity between his and Ahmadinejad’s political views — that the latter’s policies “are driving the country over a precipice”.

Mr. Ronaghi’s article points out how Ahmadinejad’s questioning as to whether the Nazi Holocaust ever really happened, has been exploited by his reformist opponents, with some success:

Ahmadinejad has fired back by accusing his critics of being affiliated to the Zionist regime, the title with which Iranian officials refer to Israel.

“I asked that question to anger the Zionists, so why are you so angry?”  Ahmadinejad asked in a speech delivered to a gathering of his supporters in recent days.

From Mr. Ronaghi’s report, we also learn that Ahmadinejad has something in common with his good buddy in our hemisphere, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela.  As it turns out, Ahmadinejad introduced something called “justice stocks”:

As part of the “justice stocks” move, the government distributed billions of dollars worth of stocks in state-run companies and factories among Iran’s lower economic classes.

It was meant to re-distribute the country’s wealth in a fairer way.

Danesh Jafari also disagrees with the way this has been carried out.  He says that the main plan, as laid down under Article 44 of the constitution and decreed by Iran’s supreme leader, had been for recepient social groups to reimburse the price of the stock in installments over 10 years.

“The government only insists on distributing the dividend profit of the stocks,” Danesh Jafari says, “But as far as reimbursement is concerned, the government has only gathered some $200 million of the planned $2 billion first installment,” the former economy minister told Al Jazeera.

It should come as no surprise that this policy has negatively impacted Ahmadinejad’s popularity with the Iranian middle class.

Many of us outside of Iran are concerned about the reaction of Iran’s “supreme leader”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to the election of a reformist as president.  After all, Iran’s president is ultimately subservient to the supreme leader.  If a reformist won the election, would Khamenei dispatch his henchmen, the Revolutionary Guard, to restore “order”?  Another article from Al Jazeera points out how these goons are already getting anxious:

The political chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has warned reformists in the country against seeking what he called a “velvet revolution”, vowing that it would be “nipped in the bud”.

Yadollah Javani’s comments appeared aimed at Mir Hossein Mousavi, a reformist candidate in the country’s presidential elections and followed another day of bitter exchanges between Mousavi and his rival and current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

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In a statement on its website, Javani drew parallels between Mousavi’s campaign and the “velvet revolution” that led to the 1989 overthrow of the communist government in then Czechoslovakia.

“There are many indications that some extremist [reformist] groups, have designed a colourful revolution … using a specific colour for the first time in an election,” the statement said.

Calling that a “sign of kicking off a velvet revolution project in the presidential elections”, Javani vowed that any “attempt for velvet revolution will be nipped in the bud”.

Meanwhile, Steve Clemons of The Washington Note, through his New America Foundation, in conjunction with Terror Free Tomorrow, conducted a poll of Iranian voters.  From the poll results, it appears as though a runoff election will be necessary, since no candidate will likely win 50 percent of the vote.  Here’s how it breaks down:

At the stage of the campaign for President when our poll was taken, 34 percent of Iranians surveyed said they will vote for incumbent President Ahmadinejad. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s closest rival, Mir Hussein Moussavi, was the choice of 14 percent, with 27 percent stating that they still do not know who they will vote for.  President Ahmadinejad’s other rivals, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai, were the choice of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

A close examination of our survey results reveals that the race may actually be closer than a first look at the numbers would indicate. More than 60 percent of those who state they don’t know who they will vote for in the Presidential elections reflect individuals who favor political reform and change in the current system.

89 percent of Iranians say that they will cast a vote in the upcoming Presidential elections. The poll shows that 87 percent of Persians, 94 percent of Azeris and around 90 percent of all other ethnicities intend to vote in the upcoming elections.

About seven in ten Iranians think the elections will be free and fair, while only one in ten thinks they will not be free and fair.

The current mood indicates that none of the candidates will likely pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; meaning that a second round runoff between the two highest finishers, as things stand, Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Moussavi, is likely.

So, if you bought any champagne to celebrate on Friday night, you may prefer to just hang onto it.  We would need to find out when the runoff election is going to take place.  That final election could be quite an exciting event.  In the mean time, take a look at the poll results discussed above.  They contain a good deal of other interesting information about what the Iranian citizens are thinking.

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